You helped bring the lagoon back.
Now decide whether the comeback continues.

Property & wealth

Home values track lagoon health.

Balmoral 2025 estimated $23 billion in Indian River Lagoon-adjacent property value. A three-bedroom home within 100 meters of the water in the study’s sample carried an estimated $660,000 premium relative to a comparable inland property. That equity is real, and it is exposed when water quality declines.

A place worth living in

A lagoon your kids and grandkids inherit.

The 2016 fish kill and the 2011–2016 super-bloom era are inside living memory. A working lagoon means the next generation grows up on a coast that still supports wildlife, swimming, and healthy shorelines — not on the salvage version. Livability is the payback that does not fit in a spreadsheet, and it is the one voters name first when asked.

Recreation & access

Public water. Free to use.

Kayaking, paddleboarding, fishing, bird-watching, boating. The lagoon is entirely public water, open to any Brevard resident with a paddle or a rod — you don’t have to live on it to use it. A dead lagoon closes that door. A recovering one opens it.

Economy & jobs

$28 billion in annual regional impact.

Recreation, tourism, commercial fishing, boat-building, aerospace and aviation industries tied to the coast: Balmoral 2025 estimated $28.3 billion in annual local economic impact tied to the lagoon, supporting 128,400 jobs and $8.3 billion in wages. That regional economy is what makes Brevard the place where Space Coast talent chooses to live.

Improving

• Mapped seagrass extent up in 2025 aerial surveys compared to 2023
• Lagoon-wide average total nitrogen down since 2016
• Chlorophyll-a lower in most basins since the 2011–2016 super-bloom era
• Manatee unusual-mortality event closed by NOAA in 2024

Still vulnerable

• Central Indian River Lagoon continues to struggle with elevated nutrients
• Muck legacy releases nitrogen and phosphorus after the tap has been turned off
• Storm and hurricane resets can undo years of seagrass regrowth quickly
• Multi-year confirmation is required before recovery can be called durable

Evidence type · Measured

Seagrass extent has increased since 2023, unevenly.

Aerial-survey mapping shows measurable seagrass expansion in parts of the lagoon since 2023, though not uniformly across basins. Comparisons to pre-2011 baselines remain incomplete.

Limitations: Aerial mapping captures extent, not shoot density or species composition.

Full claim EC-01 ↗

Evidence type · Modelled

Program-wide nitrogen reduction is a modelled estimate.

The reported ~183,000 pounds of annual nitrogen reduction and ~144,000 pounds of one-time removal are engineering-model calculations, not direct lagoon measurements. They rely on documented project-level assumptions.

Limitations: Modelled totals depend on treatment-efficiency assumptions and typical loading factors.

Full claim EC-04 ↗

Evidence type · Projected

Full-plan projections depend on future construction.

If the full ten-year plan is built as adopted, the county projects annual reductions of 748,105 pounds of nitrogen. This is a forward projection tied to plan completion — not measured performance.

Limitations: Projections are conditional on construction schedules, permitting outcomes, and future funding decisions.

Full claim EC-05 ↗

If work continues

A working lagoon in 2050.

• Seagrass expanding across more basins, with recovery from storms measured in seasons rather than decades
• Manatee foraging sustained on natural forage, not emergency feeding
• Working fisheries, small-boat access, and swimmable water in more places, more often
• A lagoon that can absorb the next wet year or hurricane without collapsing back to the 2011–2016 baseline

If work stops

A lagoon that slides back.

• Seagrass gains reversed by the next super-bloom or hurricane season, without dedicated recovery funding to rebuild
• Legacy muck continuing to release nitrogen and phosphorus even after point-source loading is reduced
• Recurring fish kills and Karenia brevis intrusion risk elevated when salinity, nutrients, and residence time align
• Waterfront property, tourism, and fishing economies exposed to the pattern the 2016 fish kill made visible

A YES vote

Continues the dedicated half-cent revenue stream for the next authorization period. Provides funding continuity for planned but unbuilt projects, oversight, monitoring, and further muck removal. Continuation is not a guarantee of any specific ecological outcome.

A NO vote

Ends the renewed local revenue stream after the current authorization expires. Existing contracts and legally available balances would be handled under applicable county rules. Unfunded projects could be delayed, reduced, or cancelled. Specific project-level outcomes cannot be predicted.